HEALTHPLAN MAGAZINE

A no-deal Brexit scenario is looking more and more likely according to the EU's chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

However, Barnier said that offering a further extension to the Brexit deadline came with "significant risks to the EU" and that "strong justification would be needed".

"As things stand now, the no-deal option looks likely, I have to tell you the truth," Barnier told European legislators.

It comes after MPs once again were unable to find common ground and a majority for any of the four indicative options in last nights vote, which are intended to test the will of the House of Commons and break the deadlock.

Theresa May's cabinet will meet again today in order to thrash out all of the options although it has been suggested that they are starting to ramp up the their preparations for a no-deal in the event she is unable get her withdrawal agreement accepted.

In last nights vote MPs rejected the most popular option, which was to leave the EU, but remain in the customs union. This option lost by just three votes. Another popular option which received the most votes was a second referendum, but this was also unable to gain a majority among dithering MPs.

Although the indicative votes are not legally binding, it was hoped that they could at least be used to find a compromise and a way forward.

It is unclear how things are going to progress, but there has been suggestions of a general election, although this will not do down well with the electorate who are already weary after almost three years of Brexit debates.

Boris Johnson indicated that he thought the way forward was to have a change of Conservative leader.

This morning, Mr Barnier said: "No deal was never our desire or intended scenario but the EU 27 is now prepared. It becomes day after day more likely."

He said, "If we are to avoid a no-deal Brexit, there is only one way forward - they have got to vote on a deal.

"There is only one treaty available - this one," he said, as he waved a copy of the withdrawal agreement.

The Irish backstop is still a sticking point, especially for the DUP who have vowed to continue to vote down Mrs May's deal.

So how will Parliament move forward?

A no-deal is the default option if MPs are unable to settle their differences and find a majority for any of the indicative options or agree to Mrs May's deal. This would potentially happen on the 12th April. It may also happen at a later date if Brexit is extended and there was still a deadlock.

Leave the EU with the PMs deal - Although Mrs May's deal has been soundly defeated three times, it has still not been permanently ruled out and could be put to MPs for a fourth time.

A major renegotiation of Brexit - This may be another option if there is an extension with MPs unable to agree and if the EU were to agree to a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement. It could be that the EU may consider a 'Norway style' agreement, which would mean a closer relationship with the EU than proposed by the current withdrawal agreement. It would also mean the UK would have to take part in the May European Parliament elections.

EU refuses an extension - If the EU does not agree to an extension of the Brexit deadline, the UK could potentially leave the EU without a deal, hold a general election, have a second referendum, revoke Article 50 or there could be a vote of no confidence in Theresa May.

A second referendum could be a possibility, however, it would take some time as new legislation would need to be created to determine the rules and who could vote. The Electoral Commission would also need time to consider what the referendum question would be. Experts believe a second referendum could take around 22 weeks to set up.

Theresa May has indicated that she would be ready to step down if her deal was accepted. She may also choose to resign if she is unable to get her deal through, which would lead to a leadership battle and a new PM.

EU President, Donald Tusk has arranged an EU summit on the 10th of April, however under the default arrangements, the UK could still exit the bloc just two days later with a no-deal.